Sunday, April 28, 2013

Easy Like Sunday Morning - 1.21 Gigawatts

Subtitle: A Glimpse Into The Future


As this season has seen realignment approved for the 2013-14 season, I could not help but wonder what the playoff implications would be had they been approved last year (when discussions began and were probably put on the back burner due to labor disputes) and employed this year. For a brush-up on the approved realignment, click here. These are what the rankings would have been, listed as 'team' then 'points' then 'regulation or overtime wins' (first tie breaker).

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Conference A
1. *Anaheim Ducks - 66 (24)
2. LA Kings - 59 (25)
3. Vancouver Canucks - 59 (21)
4. San Jose Sharks - 57 (17)
5. Phoenix Coyotes - 51 (17)
6. Edmonton Oilers - 45 (17)
7. Calgary Flames - 42 (19)

Conference B
1. *Chicago Blackhawks - 77 (30)
2. St. Louis Blues - 60 (24)
3. Minnesota Wild - 55 (22)
4. Winnipeg Jets - 51 (22)
5. Dallas Stars - 48 (20)
6. Nashville Predators - 41 (14)
7.  Colorado Avalanche - 39 (14)

Top team from each lettered conference gets the automatic bid, so that puts Chicago at #1 and then Anaheim at #2. The next four teams are ranked as the top two teams in each lettered conference so that puts St. Louis at #3, Los Angeles at #4, Vancouver at #5 and Minnesota at #6 (even though San Jose has more points, each lettered conference is guaranteed three bids in the top six). The final two spots go to wild cards dubbed the highest remaining point totals in the entire (Western in this case) conference. So San Jose takes #7 and Winnipeg takes #8. Matchups?

1. Chicago Blackhawks vs. 8. Winnipeg Jets
2. Anaheim Ducks vs. 7. San Jose Sharks
3. St. Louis Blues vs. 6. Minnesota Wild
4. Los Angeles Kings vs. 5. Vancouver Canucks

Who wins: Winnipeg. They make playoffs.
Who loses: Honestly, nobody. The matchups are all changed but the season series means squat when its playoff time. Every team could beat every team in this setup, and every team could lose. Except Chicago. They can't lose.

EASTERN CONFERENCE... is a bit tricky because there is still one game to go and believe it or not it has significant influence on the placement of seeds. I've run through every possible scenario for tonight's game (six... there are only six scenarios. It really didn't take me that long) and so everything hinges on two things - A.) if Boston gets the win in regulation, overtime or shootout, they pass Montreal. If they get one or zero points they rank behind the Habs. B.) If Ottawa does not secure a point, they will not surpass the NY Islanders and will miss playoffs. I'm going to seed assuming Boston does NOT get the win they need and Ottawa passes the Islanders.

Conference C
1. *Montreal Canadiens - 63 (26)
2. Boston Bruins - 62 (24)
3. Toronto Maple Leafs - 57 (26)
4. Detroit Red Wings - 56 (22)
5. Ottawa Senators - 56 (21)
6. Buffalo Sabres - 48 (14)
7. Tampa Bay Lightning - 40 (17)
8. Florida Panthers - 36 (12)

Conference D
1. *Pittsburgh Penguins - 72 (33)
2. Washington Capitals - 57 (24)
3. New York Rangers - 56 (22)
4. New York Islanders - 55 (20)
5. Columbus Blue Jackets - 55 (19)
6. Philadelphia Flyers - 49 (22)
7. New Jersey Devils - 48 (17)
8. Carolina Hurricanes - 42 (18)

Here we go - top team from each lettered conference gets the automatic bid, so Pittsburgh is #1 and Montreal is #2. Next four seeds fall to the highest two in each lettered conference, so Boston is #3, Toronto is #4, Washington gets the #5 spot and #6 goes to the NY Rangers. Next come the wildcard bids with #7 going to Detroit and #8 going to Ottawa. And so are matchups are:

1. Pittsburgh Penguins vs. 8. Ottawa Senators
2. Montreal Canadiens vs. 7. Detroit Red Wings
3. Boston Bruins vs. 6. NY Rangers
4. Toronto Maple Leafs vs. 5. Washington Capitals.

Who wins: Tough to tell until tonight's game is decided. If the Bruins win they would face Detroit, if they don't they would face the Rangers. Does it really matter? Both they and Montreal maintain home ice in the first round. Every team here is also already slotted to make playoffs.
Who loses: NY Islanders. They continue their soon to be hipster trendy style of making playoffs years ago before it was cool (they're moving to the Barclays Center in Brooklyn).

SUMMATION: It is in my opinion of clear mind and heart that the Stanley Cup Playoffs will be influenced very little by the restructuring of the NHL. It will undoubtedly change coaching strategies, especially late in the season, as certain games mean more. But keep in mind that certain games also mean less. The ebb and flow of the league will be maintained and new rivalries will brew.

OTHER SUMMATION: I've wasted hours of analysis to basically say, "Winnipeg is in, and the Islanders are out. Matchups don't matter." ...Garth, that was a haiku.

Sunday, April 21, 2013

Easy Like Sunday Morning - The End's Not Here, But It's Near

In a year where many of us hockey fans expected no season at all, we find ourselves eclipsing the final turn and racing down the stretch towards the postseason.

By the end of today, we will have just seven days and 48 games left in the regular season. We know eight teams that have already clinched a spot (Anaheim, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, Montreal, Pittsburgh, Toronto and Vancouver) and the eight teams that are already eliminated (Buffalo, Calgary, Carolina, Colorado, Florida, Nashville, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay) with a pair of teams able to clinch tonight with a win (San Jose and St. Louis) and two potentially eliminated with a loss (Edmonton and New Jersey).

Phew. Since Winnipeg is within striking distance of Washington to take the Southeast Division, let's just call the non-division clinching contender Jets/Caps for now. So, to put it simply, we essentially have four teams fighting for three spots in the East (NY Islanders, Ottawa, NY Rangers and Jets/Caps) and five teams fighting for two spots in the West (Minnesota, Columbus, Detroit, Dallas and Phoenix).

Is your head spinning yet? Good. It has been a whirlwind of a season. Fans that swore off the NHL before the first puck even dropped due to Collective Bargaining Disagreements have had goldfish memories and provided some of the best television ratings the sport has seen in years. From a handful of blockbuster deadline deals to rookies putting up numbers all over the league to Toronto ending its playoff plague and Detroit possibly ending their reign, it certainly has been a fun year to watch.

So as we enter this final week of the regular season, I wanted to take a moment to point out a number of stories that I found compelling.

Chicago's Record Setting Point Streak to Start the Season
The Chicago Blackhawks seemed poised to strike when the negotiations were finally concluded, as they earned a 24 game point streak to start the season. Not short on leadership or talent, they found themselves with a goaltending tandem of Crawford and Emery that complimented the tremendous skill they have up front. While some sports commentators tended to look down on this streak as they did suffer losses in shootouts during the span (these same sports commentators referred to them as ties, which haven't been around in the NHL for years - glad you get to be on camera talking about hockey), the historic start has since placed the Blackhawks in the #1 playoff spot in the Western Conference and almost undoubtedly the President's Trophy recipients for most points in a season. If a team is doing so well they're able to revitalize Ray Emery's career, you know they're doing something right. The only irony is that their first regulation loss came at the hands of the Colorado Avalanche, last place in the West and likely to get the first or second overall pick in the Draft.

The Massive Influence of Rookies
Since we're on the topic of Chicago, let's transition to the impact rookies have had on this season. Chicago's Brandon Saad has posted 10 goals, 15 assists and a plus/minus rating of +15 in 43 games this season. Punch line? He's 5th in rookie scoring. Unfortunately, two of the guys ahead of him (Florida's Jonathan Huberdeau and Edmonton's Nail Yakupov) won't make the postseason this year, but Ottawa's Cory Conacher and Montreal's Brendan Gallagher will. Across the league rookies have had a significant influence on wins and losses, but there a number of cities that are now playoff bound because of their hard work - namely Montreal and Ottawa (most likely). Don't forget about St. Louis' Jake Allen in net either - going 9-4 and having a GAA of 2.46 in the same division as Detroit and Chicago is nothing to frown upon. Let's just hope these young guns can keep the juices flowing come May.

Sidney Crosby's Hart Memorial Trophy Bid
I won't say much about this because we all know about the skill Sidney Crosby possesses. What I will say is that he went took a Brooks Orpik slap shot to the face that broke his jaw and cost him a couple of chicklets on March 30th and he hasn't played since. Today is April 21st, and he still holds the league lead for points. By three points. Its realistic that he might be out for a whole month before someone overtakes the top spot in points. Everyone talks about Malkin's size and his moves that stop the show around the net, but Crosby is a player that has had a target on his back since he was 12 years old and he's always risen above expectation. Supposing he makes it back in time for round one (along with Malkin and Neal), the Penguins are going to be a tough team to face. Keep in mind they're 7-2 without him including the game in which he was injured and at that point it was around one minute into the first and tied 0-0.

Unexpected Success
Two teams I never expected to see in playoff contention this year are the New York Islanders and the Columbus Blue Jackets. It's kind of hard to put a finger on the Islanders' success this year assuming you overlook their former #1 overall draft pick and leader John Tavares. A lot of people expected franchise flipping play from this skilled forward and while he has had a number of impressive years to start his career (averaging a point a game this year) he has yet to supply a season in which he ends up in the plus. Still, at only -3, he looks to jump into Stanley Cup playoffs for the first time as a bottom four seed and hopefully do some damage. The Blue Jackets on the other hand can put a face on their success without question, and its the face of Bob. Sergei Bobrovsky is putting up Vezina quality numbers for Columbus after he and Bryzgalov let pucks in their net like a couple of bad bouncers at a college bar last year for the Flyers' playoff run. This year he's faced almost 1,000 shots and has posted a 93.1% save percentage in stark contrast to the 72.2% of playoffs just a year ago. They're still in 8th place, but IF they make playoffs the only success Columbus will see will be at the hands of Bobrovsky continuing his mind blowing tending of the net. They say goaltending wins championships...

A Nation United
Alright I know that as a Boston fan I'm going to look biased by merely mentioning this, but I have to say how incredibly touching it was to see the sports world come together in light of the Boston Marathon bombings. Across the nation we saw teams and players paying homage to those who were injured, first responders or unfortunately lost in the wake of this cowardly act and you don't need another person to point that out to you. What I will say is this: two of the most heated rivalries in North American sports are the Boston Bruins versus the Montreal Canadiens and the Boston Red Sox versus the New York Yankees. They're historic, they're brutal, they're relentless. Those differences were put aside as both the Habs and the Yanks honored the city of Boston before their next games - in Montreal that night and in New York the next night. A lot can be said about sports and rivalries, but when it comes down to it respect rules the day. Here is the video of the Bruins' pregame when hosting the Sabres on Wednesday (two days after the bombing), complete with the moment of silence, the montage and the anthem. Keep in mind that after the game was over, both the Bruins and the Sabres stayed on the ice to lift their sticks and honor the crowd.

Sunday, March 17, 2013

Easy Like Sunday Morning - Realignment


And so the realignment talks that started last season have been sorted and approved for the 2013-14 season. Let's start with the basics.

The four "Conferences" are actually four divisions, two in the West and two in the East. While they are so eloquently named Conference A, Conference B, Conference C and (wait for it...) Conference D, the move pushed one currently misplaced Eastern Conference team (Winnipeg) to the West and two potentially misplaced Western Conference teams (Detroit and Columbus) to the East, leaving the East with 16 teams and the West with 14 teams.

Conference A - Anaheim Ducks, Calgary Flames, Edmonton Oilers, Los Angeles Kings, Phoenix Coyotes, San Jose Sharks, Vancouver Canucks.
Conference B - Chicago Blackhawks, Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, Minnesota Wild, Nashville Predators, St. Louis Blues, Winnipeg Jets.
Conference C - Boston Bruins, Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings, Florida Panthers, Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, Tampa Bay Lightning, Toronto Maple Leafs.
Conference D - Carolina Hurricanes, Columbue Blue Jackets, New Jersey Devils, New York Islanders, New York Rangers, Philadelphia Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins, Washington Capitals.

I fully understand why Detroit has been moved to the East - they recognize the eastern time zone and therefore have to travel to three separate time zones for most of their season under their current situation. Here's the thing - they should have been left in Conference B. This way both the East and the West would have an equal number of teams and Conference B already has every team but Colorado in the central time zone. It alleviates their travel while simultaneously allowing a balance to be maintained. Plus there's the age old rivalry of Chicago and Detroit.

Even more importantly in some people's eyes, there are the incredibly temporary and unmarketable names for the four Conferences. I toyed with the idea of naming each after legendary players from a team within - such as the Gretzky Division for Conference A as it hold the LA Kings and the Edmonton Oilers and the Lemieux Division for Conference D as it holds the Pittsburgh Penguins. If things went the way I'd mentioned and Detroit was in Conference B, it would be called the Howe Division and Conference C would be called the Orr Division. But alas, that is not the case. So we have Orr and Howe fighting for a namesake and Conference B without claim (Savard? Sakic? Modano?)

Regardless, this is how the new playoff structure will work. The top team from Conference A and B (henceforth mentioned as "Western Conferences") will reign as champions of their division and earn the number 1 and 2 playoff spots. The next four playoff spots (3, 4, 5 and 6) will be awarded to the top remaining teams with two coming from Conference A and two from Conference B. The final two spots (7 and 8) will be awarded to the top two remaining teams in the Western Conference. The same is true for the Conference C and D (henceforth referred to as "Eastern Conference"). This can get confusing for casual fans as the number 6 playoff spot could have fewer points than the number 7 playoff spot but outranks them solely because they are third in their lettered conference and get an automatic top six bid.

Confusing? Yes. Fair? Close. As mentioned before the Eastern Conference has more teams, meaning Conference A has three automatic bids out of seven teams, while Conference C has three automatic bids out of eight teams. In the end, its all just semantics and the best teams will win the most games and earn their spots. It's not a change in the game, its merely a change in late season strategy just as the shootout changed whether or not you pull your goalie at the end of overtime to go for the win. What's needed is a different point system where you get three points for a regulation or overtime win, two points for a shootout win, one point for a shootout loss and zero for a regulation of overtime loss. But I digress.

The fact of the matter is that Atlanta's move to Winnipeg caused a rift in the Conference and Division alignments and this is the NHL's approved solution. I look forward to existing rivalries heating up and new rivalries to form. I can't say I'm stoked that my Bruins are going to be playing the Red Wings more, but hey you have to beat the best to be the best.